Tuesday 25 June 2013

Im taking the opposite view

From a prominent Malaysian financier.

For the past 2 years, I was very cautious about the market until the breakthrough in market sentiment after GE XIII; I cited the major risks in:-
1. The end to Fed easing- The day will come when Bernanke couldn't find enough paper to wrap the fire he was playing with in QEs. 
2. The huge property bubble in Asia.
3. The reverse in the miraculous Asean markets in Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia- What goes up, must come down.
4. Credit bubble in Asia- The wealth we see today is a mere aftermath of easy money by Asian central bankers.
5. Rising interest rates eventually

From Wall Street:
A lot are screaming like a petulant child when their candy is being taken away when Ben said that they will soften QE with an eye to stopping it all together.  They are saying that with the rising interest rates, the bond yields, it will hurt the economy and cause it to stumble into recession.

My take:

Lets focus on the Malaysian economy first.

Point 1. Stupid at best. 
Point 2. Huge property bubble in Asia. In Malaysia i really do not see a bubble popping. Yes the prices are high but will it pop and send KLSE crashing? No. There are a few factors that cause the bubble to pop ( cheap money, sub-prime credit, banks highly leveraged) out of the three points, besides cheap money to a certain extent, none are present in Malaysia yet. You can argue saying that households are gearing up on their personal loan to pay 30% down-payment for their third property but in all likelihood, these people CAN afford their monthly repayment not some burger sellers.
Point 3:Again i struggle to understand why people are reluctant to give Indon, Philippines their due. is it because our maids come from Indon? Indonesia is quite populous while Philippines is growing by leaps and bounds. The market might correct but a full blown crash? Unlikely. Even Malaysia does not seem to be a candidate for a full blown crash ( even with debt top GDP nearly 53%)
Point 4: Credit bubble, totally agree. Cheap money is leaving as interest rates are higher, that should help the market correct itself to sustainable levels. Biggest risk is actually in the Land of the Dragon. Cheap international money is pump priming the stock exchange, cheap money by the Central banks to pump prime the property, cheap money to banks to lend out thus creating a shadow banking network, all these points to a deadly cocktail that may push China off the rails. ( Oh, if China goes off the rails, we should buy Airasia X shares in anticipation of all the China girls coming to Malaysia to work..tongue in cheek, i mean their tongue in my cheek)
Point 5: For USA i assume, if so, do you realize the main problem with the US economy? They are not saving enough, spending like there is no tomorrow. Like what i would say, taking a dump without making sure there is toilet paper.) So yes, rising interest rates would allow Americans to think about savings, to grow their money and in turn create sustainable spending. Short term pain, long term growth.

QE is basically printing money. Them being stopped is a good move. No one wants fake money running around the economy. The faster they are stopped, the better. Let the economy slowly grow but the growth is both sustainable and natural.

Advise is always the same:
Profit when your neighbor starts talking about stocks. But if you see them holding their heads in despair buy them. Once you identify good companies, BUY them. Good companies will stumble, but in the long run they WILL make money.

Stocks to me is like having sex. You go HARD or you go HOME. Once you find a gem, go HARD.